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A Local Forecast of Land Surface Wetness Conditions Derived from Seasonal Climate Predictions Public Deposited

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  • An ensemble local hydrologic forecast derived from the seasonal forecasts of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) is presented. Three-month seasonal forecasts were used to resample historical meteorological conditions and generate ensemble forcing datasets for a TOPMODEL-based hydrology model. Eleven retrospective forecasts were run at Florida and New York sites. Forecast skill was assessed for mean area modeled water table depth (WTD) and compared with WTD simulated with observed data. Hydrology model forecast skill was evident at the Florida site. Persistence of initial hydrologic conditions and local skill of the IRI seasonal forecast contributed to this local hydrologic forecast skill. At the New York site, there was no persistence of initial hydrologic conditions and local skill of the IRI seasonal forecast was poor; these factors precluded local hydrologic forecast skill at this site.
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  • Shaman, Jeffrey, Marc Stieglitz, Stephen Zebiak, Mark Cane, 2003: A Local Forecast of Land Surface Wetness Conditions Derived from Seasonal Climate Predictions. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4, 611–626.
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  • J. Shaman is supported by a NASA Earth System Science Fellowship. This research was supported by NOAA Grant Number UCS10PO10216264, the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project at Goddard Space Flight Center, and NASA’s Global Modeling and Analysis Program under RTOP 622-24-47.
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  • description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2012-02-13T17:56:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ShamanJeffrey.CEOAS.LocalForecastLand.pdf: 2061127 bytes, checksum: b47ab3606f596f4b48aede32dac03a66 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2003-06
  • description.provenance : Submitted by Deborah Campbell (deborah.campbell@oregonstate.edu) on 2012-02-13T17:56:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ShamanJeffrey.CEOAS.LocalForecastLand.pdf: 2061127 bytes, checksum: b47ab3606f596f4b48aede32dac03a66 (MD5)

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