Measurement error and the hot hand Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/defaults/h989r3912

This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by Taylor & Francis and can be found at:  http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/utas20/current.

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  • This paper shows the first autocorrelation of basketball shot results is a highly biased and inconsistent estimator of the first autocorrelation of the ex ante probabilities the shots are made. Shot result autocorrelation is close to zero even when shot probability autocorrelation is close to one. The bias is caused by what is equivalent to a severe measurement error problem. The results imply that the widespread belief among players and fans in the hot hand is not necessarily a cognitive fallacy.
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  • Stone, D. (2012). Measurement error and the hot hand. AMERICAN STATISTICIAN, 66(1), 61-66. doi: 10.1080/00031305.2012.676467
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  • description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2013-01-04T18:33:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 StoneDanielEconomicsMeasurementErrorHot.pdf: 106024 bytes, checksum: 3362f932f50cded832a8a9e80c71eaa5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-02
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