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Seasonal forecast of St. Louis Encaphilitis Virus transmission, Florida Public Deposited

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  • Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empiric relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill-verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empiric disease forecast model.
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  • Shaman, J., Day, J. F., Stieglitz, M., Zebiak, S., & Cane, M. (2004). Seasonal forecast of St. Louis Encaphilitis Virus transmission, Florida. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 10(5), 802-809.
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  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration Headquarters under the Earth System Science Fellowship, grant NGT5-50323. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Postdoctoral Program in Climate and Global Change, administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. NAtional Aeronautics and Space Administration Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project at Goddard Space Flight Center.
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