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Multi-Centennial Response of ENSO Under Varying Atmospheric CO2

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_projects/3484zh62p

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  • The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects millions of people via global teleconnections in the form of drought and torrential rainfall that impact agriculture and food production in many countries. Yet how ENSO will respond to a warming world is uncertain and a greatly debated topic. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) reports on modeling efforts using coupled atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) to diagnose the response of ENSO in a warming world. The IPCC stresses the value of a multi-model approach so that no one model is relied on too heavily and collections of models can be aggregated in ensembles to evaluate the quality of the current state of climate models. A formal evaluation of model ensembles used in the IPCC reports also fulfills a secondary goal of determining whether climate models are collectively improving over time. Here we present a new AOGCM, GENMOM, which combines the GENESIS atmospheric GCM (Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems) and MOM (Modular Ocean Model). GENMOM simulates a realistic present-day climate and ENSO dynamics that are on par with the models used in IPCC AR4. The response of ENSO to doubling atmospheric CO2 from 355 ppmV to 710 ppmV and 1420 ppmV (hereafter denoted 1x, 2x and 4x respectively) is evaluated using long (600 year) GENMOM simulations. Higher amplitude and more frequent ENSO events are associated with global warming.
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