An econometric analysis of the Japanese import demand for U.S. forest products Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/02870z584

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  • Japan is the largest market for U.S. forest products. Therefore, export of wood products to this country is critical to the economic life of the forest industry in the U.S. and particularly for the Pacific Northwest. Hence, economic conditions and developments in Japan may significantly affect the volume of trade for the products of concern and, in turn, the well-being of the U.S. lumber and log production-consumption system. Few studies have addressed forest product trade between the U.S. and Japan. This study is designed to determine the effect of several selected market factors on the Japanese import demand for U.S. softwood lumber and logs and to estimate the influence of these factors on Japan's future trade. A numerical model was developed incorporating these selective factors, thought to be relevant, to determine their effects on the Japanese market for the U.S. forest products. The evaluation considers the effects of variations in: Japanese income, domestic production of softwood logs in Japan, domestic prices of the products of concern, petroleum purchased by Japan, nominal interest rates in Japan, the exchange rates, and finally a weighted average of prices of the products from the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington, only). Given the available resources, two empirical time series models for each commodity were estimated by OLS technique using annual data from 1961 through 1985. The results indicate that the Japanese import demands for both products are inelastic. This finding, along with other evidence, suggests the distortion of the Japanese import demand for U.S. forest products by factors other than economic, mainly politics involved in trade restraint between the two countries. The study shows that GNP per capita, housing starts, and the interest rates in Japan, significantly affect the Japanese import demand for lumber from the U.S. Housing starts is the only significant factor in the case of the Japanese import demand for U.S. logs. In the latter case, the exchange rates and log export prices to Japan (deflated by Japan's wholesale price index), are significant only when the log linear model has been applied.
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  • description.provenance : Submitted by Sergio Trujillo (jstscanner@gmail.com) on 2011-12-29T22:56:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 NIAMIFARHAD1987.pdf: 769187 bytes, checksum: 47d2cd99fcd9222b221594beb69a0ba0 (MD5)
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