Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

Decision procedures for capital rationing under conditions of risk

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  • The problem of deciding exactly how to allocate a limited amount of capital resources among competing investment alternatives in order to provide the greatest economic benefit to the business enterprise has been a subject of interest for nearly a century. Many decision models and methods for evaluation and comparison of alternatives have been described in the various business, economic, accounting, and engineering journals. The purpose of this thesis is twofold: First, to review the significant literature concerning capital budgeting written during the past 15 or 20 years, with the intent on highlighting and organizing the material. Second, to select an area within the field where little work has yet been done, or where the treatment has been less than satisfactory. In regards to the second part of the over-all objective of the thesis, the development of a game board for simulating the risk surrounding possible investment payoffs is described. A capital rationing problem containing essential elements of real-world situations is developed and described in detail. The main thrust of the present paper is a new approach to finding the "best" solution to this type of capital rationing problem encountered under conditions of risk. Drawing on basic principles of cardinal utility theory, a quantitative investment policy is presented. The investment criterion used is the before-taxes percentage rate of return; decision rules are based on an evaluation of the risk-return profile curve for each alternative under consideration. Parameter values for probability coefficients and for critical rate of return values are arbitrarily established for a hypothetical risk-seeker, risk-avoider, and risk-insensitive. The investment decisions based upon their individual risk preferences is presented for data developed in the sample problem. Finally, the results of an investigation as to how individuals actually make decisions (that is, what decision-rules they use) in problems of this type are given, and suggestions for further research are made.
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