Projected temperature and precipitation changes for Corvallis and Los Angeles for the 2030-2059 period using the Hadley Center's regional climate model (HadRM3P). Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/undergraduate_thesis_or_projects/1j92g872n

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  • Average monthly temperatures (maximum and minimum) and precipitation patterns are expected to change as a direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Temperatures are expected to be warmer in the future but precise estimates vary depending on factors like number of ensembles and emission scenario. For this study, we used 100 ensembles to simulate a recent historical period (Dec. 1985-Nov. 2014) and a future climate scenario (Dec. 2030-Nov. 2059) for two cities: Corvallis, OR and Los Angeles, CA. Atmospheric forcings followed the RCP 4.5 scenario. We used results from the simulations to compare temperature and precipitation changes between the two periods for both cities. Average monthly temperatures (maximum and minimum) increased for both cities. Both cities would experience an increase in number of days above 90 °F (14 for Corvallis and 18 more days for Los Angeles). For Corvallis, average annual temperature increased from 12.8 ± 0.3°𝐶 to 14.4 ± 0.3 °𝐶. Average annual precipitation increased from 942.0 mm to 994.0 mm (p-value: 10−23). Likewise, for Los Angeles, average annual temperature increased from 18.1 ± 0.3°𝐶 to 19.5 ± 0.3 °𝐶 and average annual precipitation changed from 265.0 mm to 260.0 mm (p-value: 0.32). We further analyzed changes in precipitation in terms of changes in frequency and intensity. Frequency and intensity of precipitation increased in winter months for Corvallis while non-uniform patterns were seen for Los Angeles. Summer precipitation decreased in terms of frequency and intensity of precipitation events for both cities.
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