Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation

 

Effects of different yield functions and initial inventory on harvest schedules for Douglas-fir Public Deposited

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  • The procedure of forest level harvest scheduling incorporates many inputs of an uncertain nature. Forest management planners must be aware of the possible effects of the use of erroneous input information on the results of their planning. With that knowledge they can better plan a risk management strategy and make appropriate adjustments in assumptions or recommendations. Two of the most important uncertain input elements are future yield predictions and initial inventory information. The objective of this study was to identify the size of effects on harvest schedules of using uncertain yield and inventory data, specifically for Douglas-fir of the Pacific Northwest. To do this sensitivity analysis, harvest schedules were developed using the sequential even-flow option of the TREES simulation model (Tedder et al. 1980) with a ceteris paribus format where all was held constant except the yield predictions or the initial inventory data. Several different yield models have been developed for predicting future yields of Douglas-fir. For extensive management, this study compares four plus an arbitrary adjustment of one of the four in a harvest scheduling context; hypothesizing that there should not be any meaningful differences in harvest schedules developed when using the different yields. The tested yields included Bulletin 201 (McArdle et al. 1930) , DFIT (Bruce et al. 1977, Reukema, Bruce 1977), DNR Empirical Yields (Chambers, Wilson 1972), Hoyer's Natural Stand Yields (Hoyer 1975), and Bulletin 201 less 15 percent. Bulletin 201 as modified by Beuter et al. (1976) , DFIT, and modified Bulletin 201 less 15 percent were tested for intensive management. Eight sample inventories were obtained that represent a spectrum of site class and initial structure. Each inventory is adjusted twice to make a total of 24 different inventories which are combined with the yield information to generate the harvest schedules. Relative differences in percent are reported with emphasis on first decade, last decade, and total planning horizon differences.
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