Simulating extreme total water levels using a time-dependent, extreme value approach Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/2v23vz197

Descriptions

Attribute NameValues
Creator
Abstract or Summary
  • Coastal flood hazard zones and the design of coastal defenses are often devised using either the maximum recorded total water level (TWL) or a 'design' event such as the 100-year return-level flood, usually projected from observed extreme events. Despite technological advances driving more consistent instrumental records of wave heights and water levels, the observational record may be short, punctuated with intermittent gaps, and vary in quality. These issues in the observational record result in limited estimates of extreme return-level events. We present a model that simulates the various components (waves, non-tidal residuals, and tides) of TWLs on sandy beaches in a Monte Carlo sense, taking into account the conditional dependencies that exist between the components. Extreme events are modeled using non-stationary extreme value distributions that include the effects of seasonality and climate variability. The resulting synthetic TWL time series allow for empirical extraction of return level events and the ability to robustly estimate and assess present-day flood and erosion hazards. We demonstrate this approach along a northern Oregon, USA littoral cell and evaluate both the chronic and extreme coastal hazards affecting the area. Simulations result in extreme TWL return levels up to 90cm higher than those estimated from the "observational" TWL record which results in approximately 25% more coastal flooding during the simulated 100-year return level event as compared to that event computed using "observational" data only. More robust estimates of extreme TWLs and tighter confidence bounds on return level events can aid coastal engineers, managers, and emergency planners in evaluating exposure to hazards.
Resource Type
Date Available
Date Copyright
Date Issued
Degree Level
Degree Name
Degree Field
Degree Grantor
Commencement Year
Advisor
Committee Member
Academic Affiliation
Non-Academic Affiliation
Keyword
Subject
Rights Statement
Peer Reviewed
Language
Replaces
Additional Information
  • description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2013-11-22T23:26:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: bb87e2fb4674c76d0d2e9ed07fbb9c86 (MD5) SerafinKatherineA2014.pdf: 3027379 bytes, checksum: 24e910d4a66eb7b0a69e751f80b302cb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-10-16
  • description.provenance : Approved for entry into archive by Julie Kurtz(julie.kurtz@oregonstate.edu) on 2013-11-20T21:48:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: bb87e2fb4674c76d0d2e9ed07fbb9c86 (MD5) SerafinKatherineA2014.pdf: 3027379 bytes, checksum: 24e910d4a66eb7b0a69e751f80b302cb (MD5)
  • description.provenance : Approved for entry into archive by Laura Wilson(laura.wilson@oregonstate.edu) on 2013-11-22T23:26:21Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: bb87e2fb4674c76d0d2e9ed07fbb9c86 (MD5) SerafinKatherineA2014.pdf: 3027379 bytes, checksum: 24e910d4a66eb7b0a69e751f80b302cb (MD5)
  • description.provenance : Submitted by Katherine Serafin (serafink@onid.orst.edu) on 2013-11-16T23:52:17Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: bb87e2fb4674c76d0d2e9ed07fbb9c86 (MD5) SerafinKatherineA2014.pdf: 3027379 bytes, checksum: 24e910d4a66eb7b0a69e751f80b302cb (MD5)

Relationships

Parents:

This work has no parents.

Last modified

Downloadable Content

Download PDF

Items