Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

An analysis of demand for U.S. winter pears in export markets

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/37720g66k

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  • The principal objective of this study was to identify and investigate the underlying basis for variations in the volumes of exports of U.S. winter pears during the 1947 to 1974 period. A number of factors thought to be of importance in the determination of the volume of exports of a specific commodity were hypothesized with reference to a two-region partial equilibrium model of trade; these factors were;the price of the exported commodity, the supply of the commodity of interest in importing countries, the prices of substitute commodities, consumer income, population and the general price level in importing countries, transportation costs in international trade, import restrictions against the commodity of interest, and fluctuations in exchange rates between the currency of the exporting country and the currencies of importing countries. The theoretical model was reformulated in terms of empirical models of demand for U.S. winter pears in specific export markets. The empirical analysis focused upon the effects on season export volumes of changes in prices of U.S. winter pears, changes in consumer income, changes in levels of pear production in consuming areas, and changes in the international trade policies of important importing countries. The results suggested that changes in the international trade policies of important importing countries and changes in the production levels of pears in consuming regions have been of principal importance in the determination of volumes of export sales of U.S. winter pears. In general, inverse relationships between prices and export volumes of U.S. winter pears were not found. However, an analysis of factors affecting U.S. winter pear prices suggested that fluctuations in demand for exports have significantly influenced season average f.o.b. prices of U.S. winter pears during the 1950 to 1974 period. Important factors influencing domestic demand were found to be the supply of fresh U.S. apples, the supply of fresh Bartlett pears after October 1st, and changes in consumer income. It was concluded that past unstable and uncertain conditions in export markets will continue into the future because of annual fluctuations in levels of pear production in foreign countries and because of unpredictable changes in import restrictions against U.S. winter pears in foreign countries.
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