Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

Time series analyses of daily albacore catches and upwelling indices off Oregon and California

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/3b591c549

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  • Daily commercial albacore catches made by U. S. trollers fishing off central California and Oregon are correlated with daily upwelling indices and predictive catch models are developed. Models predicting total catch/day and catch/boat/day are formulated for the region off central California in 1961 to 1963 and off Oregon in 1967 to 1969. These models explain 28 to 91% of the variances in expected catches one day in advance for the years studied. The total catch/day models are better predictors than the catch/boat/day models, indicating that the behavior of albacore fishermen is important in developing predictive catch models when catch records are used. The statistically significant terms of catches lagged to upwelling indices in the models recur at one to three, six to nine and 13 to 14 days off Oregon, and at less than five days off central California. The reason for the long lags off Oregon may be due to active and relaxed cyclical upwelling events. The lags of less than five days in both locations may be associated with the delay of upwelling after the onset of northerly or northwesterly winds. The relationships between daily catches and daily upwelling indices off Oregon and central California indicate that albacore catches and fishing success are affected by pulses of upwelling. Catches as functions of catches, when present in the models, are positive and significant at lags of one day and either positive or negative at lags of two days or more. These values suggest that albacore catches probably remain high for one day after the start of good fishing.
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