The economic consequences of intensifying forest management in Douglas County, Oregon Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/3t945t03w

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  • The objective of this study was to measure the consequences of alternative forest management intensification programs. These consequences include future harvest levels, silvicultural labor and capital requirements, and the income and employment generated directly and indirectly. The system utilizes the Timber Resource Economic Estimation System (TREES) model, a harvest scheduling model which also projects silvicultural treatment opportunities. The capital and labor requirements estimates for silvicultural treatments were developed for alternative forest management regimes. Estimated silvicultural, logging and forest manufacturing employment and earnings were combined to form the forest-based employment component of the economy. An economic base differential multiplier (EBDM) model estimated employment and earnings multipliers for the forestry and the remaining basic industries. Thus the changes in the future harvest levels that could result from alternative forest management regimes were related and would impact the economy of a timber- dependent county in Oregon. The forest resource base and economy for Douglas County, Oregon were used for a case study utilizing the developed model system. Alternative forest management intensities and policies were analyzed. The timing of labor and capital requirements were compared for each owner group. Resulting employment and earnings generated by the alternative management regimes and their consequences on the economy were estimated and compared. If public forests increased harvests, ignoring current non-declining even-flow regulations, new inventory data would forecast a nine-percent decline per decade of average annual harvests in Douglas County. The National Forests in the county would require 69 percent more labor and 84 percent more capital in the second decade over the first decade's requirements to meet the forecasts. The forest products sector may decline by 8.5 per decade for employment and 5.0 percent for income from the first to third decade of the simulation. This gradual decline will affect the county's economy, but the degree will depend on the growth of other exporting industries and the supply-based growth of the service sector.
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