A comparison of subregional lumber, plywood and log markets in the Douglas-fir region Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/4b29b884p

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  • Subregional log market differences are defined and analyzed. Seven demand and seven supply centers are initially specified. Log demand factors inspected are mill capacity, processed wood species, cost and profitability conditions distinguished by product and subregion. They are preliminarily linked to a regional market model through product price transmission. An econometric flexible accelerator model of investment tracks mill capacity changes over time. Log supply factors include species and owner specific resource inventories, harvests, prices and costs for each subarea. Inventories are simulated with a growth-drain model based on net growth functions, harvests, land area changes and initial inventory levels. Differing behavioral responses across owner groups are recognized. Data compilation involves collection and generation schemes. Log demand and supply equations are estimated over a period of 1947 - 1982 using a simultaneous econometric technique. Estimation success is limited for log supply equations. Log demand equations produced information allowing price elasticity comparisons to be made across products and subregions. A method is discussed for linking this subregional model with a regional model for policy simulations.
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