A study of strategic and tactical decision making procedures Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/4q77fv79v

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  • An extensive literature survey investigated methods and approaches for evaluating intangible economic factors at the strategic and tactical levels of managerial decision making. These sources provided: 1) the background for a theoretical decision making algorithm developed for comparing alternative economic proposals for effectiveness at the strategy levels, and 2) a number of techniques for measuring intangible properties quantitatively at the tactical levels. A technique developed by Barish, and in combination with a procedure by Churchman and Ackoff for comparing intangible and tangible objectives, was presented as a working method for comparing strategic alternatives. The comparisons thus derived for individual decision making can be integrated with the aid of Helmer's "anonymous debating procedure." The initial development of a decision making algorithm, Part I, used subjective scales of relative effectiveness values representing the competing strategies. Paired comparisons were employed to achieve ordinal scales. Then, employing Siegel's "higher- ordered metric" scaling procedure, ordered metric scales were developed, followed by more accurate higher-ordered metric scales of subjective effectiveness values. In Part II of the decision process the best of three alternative methods for converting subjective ordered scales into interval scales was employed to attach quantitative values to scale positions; the Higher-Ordered Metric Minima approach was selected over the Ordered Metric Minima approach and the Standard Gamble approach. In Part III the interval scales of Part II were transformed into ratio scales, based on known zero effectiveness strategies. Employing the weighted average method, the scales under each criteria were combined by having the experts weight themselves. Then the conflicting objectives were weighted according to an adaptation of Helmer's procedure, and the objective-strategy scales were combined into one scale of overall effectiveness. A section was provided in which methods of assigning dollar values to intangible effects at the tactical levels were presented, considered under three general categories. Under the category of "intangibles evaluative with respect to market values, " examples of measuring intangible property values of a firm were given, according to Marston, Winfrey, and Hempstead. Under the category of "intangibles not evaluative in terms of market values, " Helmer's "anonymous debating procedure" for arriving at median values by determining mean estimated values of experts was presented. Stanly's "expected cost" method, in which expected values were established through the multiplication of probabilities of occurrence by estimated values of occurrence was discussed. Secondly, a number of examples of associating dollar values to intangible effects were presented under the "valuation method. " Thirdly, under the category of "complete intangibility," in which intangible effects are not considered evaluative in monetary terms, the exponential rating method was described, in which alternative proposals are subjectively rated according to their effectiveness in achieving intangible objectives, and all objectives are ranked in terms of their relative importances. In conclusion, the decision making algorithm developed in this thesis represents an attempt to achieve systematic and objective decision making at the strategy level. Furthermore, it forces decision makers to concentrate on all aspects of competing strategies when making relative comparisons. The intangible methods of evaluation presented at the tactical levels for measuring competing proposals monetarily are very limited in their accuracy; however, they cause the decision makers to consider important intangible effects and to attempt to dollarize them meaningfully.
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