Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation


Evaluating the Seismic Risk and Resilience of an Electrical Power System Public Deposited

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  • The Pacific Northwest is part of the "Ring of Fire," which is well-known for heavy seismic activity. Numerous active faults in the area have encouraged electric grid managers in the region to more deeply contemplate and proactively intervene to support grid resilience. This research introduces Monte Carlo (MC) based power system modeling using the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) method. To apply the PBEE method on a power system, a conversion of the traditional Bus-Branch (BB) model to the augmented Bus-Branch (aBB) model is suggested using the proposed set of guidelines. To validate the proposed augmentation numerous N-2 contingencies are simulated on the IEEE Reliability Test System 1996 (RTS-96). As a proof of concept the methodology simulates 100,000 sample earthquakes of a 6.8 magnitude (M6.8) Portland-hills fault (PHF) scenario on the Portland General Electric (PGE) grid. The research also proposes the use of a Seismic Load Recovery Factor (SLRF) as a resilience metric to quantify the recovery of a downed power system, which allows utilities to make choices regarding proactive seismic intervention that maximally benefit customers. Using MC results & SLRF, which was calculated as 19.7 hours for this study, the expected economic consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF earthquake was found to be $180 million with an annualized risk of $90,000 given the event's low probability of occurrence (approximately 1 in 2000 years). As the MC method also enabled the identification of the eight most consequential substations in the PGE system -- i.e., those that contributed to maximum load loss -- intervention options could be devised at a high level and costed. This study concludes that upon retrofitting these substations, the expected consequence cost of a M6.8 PHF event was reduced to $117 million.
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