Wheat acreage response in Oregon and Washington Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/6t053j23p

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  • National farm legislation seeks to moderate the conditions of low farm incomes and commodity price instability. Homogeneity of producer response is generally assumed in national models of aggregate commodity supply. Differing conditions of soil, climate, production systems, costs of production, markets, etc., could cause disparate acreage responses to the commodity programs inter-structurally and/or inter-regionally. If national models of aggregate commodity supply are used as the basis for government policy decisions and If the impact of the farm bill on a given region is not the same as the aggregate impact on the United States, then national models are not appropriate for regional analysis. The major aim of this research is to compare and evaluate the wheat acreage responses between production systems within Oregon and Washington and between this region and the estimated national average wheat acreage response. Oregon and Washington are disaggregated into five regions each on the basis of general similarity in soil, climate, substitute crops and production structures. First, the occurrence of different wheat production systems in these regions from 1966 to 1977 is measured and described. Secondly, regional acreage response models that allow differential inter-structural and inter-regional impacts of the major provisions for wheat price support and wheat acreage set-aside and diversion are developed. Parameters of three functions utilizing pooled time-series and cross-sectional data are estimated for each state--the first predicts the total acreage of wheat planted and the second and third predict the acreages of dryland and irrigated wheat planted, respectively. Government programs have little impact in Oregon, and only slightly more in Washington. The elasticity of acreage response with respect to market price differed from the national average in all cases but one. Finally, the implications of using the national acreage model influenced by the preponderance of red wheat grown in the Wheat Belt to predict the Northwest regional white wheat acreage response is addressed.
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