An analysis of regional log and lumber production costs in Canada, with projections to 2030 Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/6w924f954

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  • The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 requires the U.S. Forest Service to periodically evaluate the U.S. timber situation. An important part of such studies is the determination of forest product imports from Canada through evaluation of Canadian log and product supply conditions. Other studies have projected these conditions for Canada as a whole, but have failed to directly consider either the impacts of forest resource characteristics on costs or the capability of Canadian forests to meet predicted harvests. This study develops procedures for projecting Canadian log and lumber production costs that explicitly consider resource characteristics and location through the identification of fifteen Timber Supply Regions expected to have relatively uniform logging conditions and the estimation of log and lumber production costs for each of these regions. Cost projections are linked to general economic conditions in Canada through estimation of labor costs as functions of gross national product. This study also evaluates the capability of the forest resource to meet predicted timber requirements. Achievable levels of production of four forest product groups are determined by comparing predicted harvest levels with estimates of economically accessible annual allowable cuts and reducing projected production levels when accessible timber supplies are limiting. A baseline simulation from 1980 to 2030 indicates that future log and lumber production costs in Canada may be less than previously projected and the predicted increases in production may no be attainable because of limited timber supplies. Gross sawmilling costs are projected to increase from $99.88/MBF in 1980 to 4123.66/MBF in 2030. These costs range from $15/MBF to $65/MBF lower than those used in TAMM, largely due to different estimates of delivered wood costs. Harvests increased from 50.2 million cunits to 73.6 million cunits but were unable to meet demands from 1984 to 2030 with shortfall reaching 13.5 million cunits in 2030. Achieved levels of product output were below projections from 1985 on, with shortfalls of 7.8 billion board feet of lumber and 2.0 million tons of pulp in 2030.
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