An analysis of the impact of floodplain regulations on residential land values: the Oak Grove, Oregon case study Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_projects/8623hz40n

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  • Flood damage mitigation by means of land use regulations, as mandated by the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, has been controversial and slow in implementation, in part due to the conjecture that residential land values will be adversely affected in the regulated areas. There has been relatively little research to test this idea. This study tests the hypothesis that floodplain regulations significantly lower the appreciation rate of residential lots within the regulated area, when compared to adjacent similar unregulated lots. The study was done in the old residential neighborhood of Oak Grove, Clackamas County, beside the Willamette River. Assessed land values from 1958 to 1981 were examined. The study period includes a disastrous flood in 1964, and the adoption of floodplain regulations in 1971. Examination of the data indicated that the regulated lots need to be subdivided into three groups, based on water frontage, and each of these was tested against the unregulated control lots. Statistical testing shows that after implementation of flood plain regulations there was no significant reduction in appreciation rates of the regulated lots when compared to the control lots. Contrary to the hypothesis in several time intervals, lakefront and riverfront lots appreciated at faster rates than the control lots did. The results suggest that there are other factors that balance, and sometimes outweigh, any negative economic effects due to floodplain regulations.
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