Grant County, Oregon : impacts of changes in log flows on a timber-dependent community Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/cv43p2055

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  • Competitive bid sales of U.S. Forest Service in the Pacific Northwest timber resources have significant effects on the economies of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. These sales contribute to the economic vitality of small regions or communities dependent upon timber as a primary resource input. Any changes in the price or quantity of these timber resources can, therefore, have effects on not only economic output of forest products firms, but the entire region as well. Grant County, Oregon, and the Malheur National Forest were selected as study areas for this analysis. This thesis attempts to show the impact on the region of selected price and quantity changes in local timber resources. During the summer months of 1978, sample data was collected on the gross sales and purchases of 109 Grant County businesses in 22 economic sectors. This information was used to construct a Leontief type input-output model for Grant County. Additional detailed information obtained from the U.S. Forest Service and local lumber and wood products processing firms was used in constructing a linear programming model. This modified transportation-type model optimizes the distribution of timber resources among wood products firms in Grant County based on each firm's total revenues and variable costs. These Costs apply to hauling, harvesting, processing, and inventory activities. In order to evaluate the effects of changes in price and quantity relationships at the local level, outputs from the linear program were entered into the input-output model as exogenous sales (exports). Three examples of changes in the price and quantity of local timber resources were evaluated: (1) a 20 percent increase in stumpage values; (2) a 20 percent decrease in 1977 stumpage quantities; and (3) a combination of both. The examples demonstrate business income, wage income, and employment impacts on the community from changes in both stumpage prices and quantities that exceed the direct impacts on forest products firms. Furthermore, the effects of changes in stumpage prices had a greater relative impact (measured by these indicators) than changes in available stumpage. In general, changes in both stumpage prices and quantities produced output, wage, and employment effects four times as large as changes in stumpage quantities and three times as large as changes in stumpage price alone.
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