Models for statistical dynamic prediction of the 500-millibar surface Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/d791sk89v

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  • The purpose of this thesis is to construct several stochastic process models for combined statistical dynamic prediction of the 500-millibar pressure surface for the northern hemisphere. To achieve this, a random forcing function is added to the spectral form of the nondivergent vorticity equation. Three models, one linear and two nonlinear are developed based upon the theory of stochastic ordinary differential equations. Mean value and covariance solutions to these equations are then found. Each model is converted to a difference equation and statistical estimation techniques suggested. The techniques are sufficiently general to be applied to simple multi-level models. Suggestions for extended range models and other areas of generalization are given.
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  • File scanned at 300 ppi using Capture Perfect 3.0 on a Canon DR-9050C in PDF format. CVista PdfCompressor 5.0 was used for pdf compression and textual OCR.
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