Demand and price comparison of hard red winter wheat and white wheat Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/dr26z129z

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  • The main objective of this research was to compare the demand and the price of hard red winter (HRW) wheat and white wheat (WW) to determine the similarities and the differences between these two wheat classes. Using Granger's causality test with average monthly cash prices and daily Free on Board (FOB) prices, it was determined that HRW adjustment instantaneously causes WW adjustment, and the WW instantaneously causes HRW adjustment. Over one-week periods, HRW causes WW adjustment, but not the reverse. The factors affecting domestic demand, foreign demand, and carry-over, for HRW and WW were determined. The coefficients of the three equations were estimated by Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS). It was shown that 1) the U.S. per capita demand for HRW can be explained by the HRW farm price and the lagged demand per capita, 2) the U.S. demand per capita for WW can be explained by the lagged demand per capita, 3) the foreign demand for HRW can be explained by the lagged foreign demand and by the trade dependency ratio, 4) the foreign demand for WW can be explained by the Japan rice price and by per capita GNP of importing countries, 5) the HRW carry-over equation (dependent variable: the ratio between the HRW farm price and the U.S. loan rate) can be explained by the ending stock and the lagged ratio, and 6) the WW carry-over equation has the same specification as for HRW. The significant variable is the lagged ratio between the WW farm price and the U.S. loan rate. These two systems of equations for HRW and WW were compared using the Wald test. The Wald test was applied to the combined system of equations, to each independent set of equations, and to selected common coefficients. The results show a difference between the coefficients of HRW and WW system of equations, due to the foreign demand equations and especially from the coefficients of GNP of the country importing HRW and WW and the coefficients of the lagged foreign demand.
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