Recent tropical storm climatology in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and some applications Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/dz010t551

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  • Reliable data for tropical storm occurrences in the northern portion of the eastern Tropical Pacific did not become available until 1966. Considering the years 1966-75, sizeable interannual variations in storm frequency are evident. Six climatological factors are investigated in an attempt to explain this interannual variation. These are: (1) the Southeast Pacific atmospheric circulation; (2) sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern Tropical Pacific; (3) the latitudinal position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone in the eastern Pacific; (4) the vertical zonal wind shear in the region; (5) the number of tropical systems entering the region from the east; and (6) relationships with other tropical storm regions of the world. It is not possible, due to lack of data coverage to adequately examine item (4) at this time. The five remaining factors, however, demonstrate that the annual tropical storm frequency in the eastern Tropical Pacific is apparently affected by cross-equatorial and cross-Pacific influences. The strength of the South Pacific Subtropical High appears to be particularly important. In addition, items (1), (2) and (3) provide the type of data that could be used in statistical models to predict the number of tropical storms that will occur in a given year. (Data used must be available before the onset of the storm season.) Two ordinary multiple regression models involving factors (1), (2), and (3) are proposed for this purpose. Both models are found to be statistically significant (at the .05 level), but due to the very limited amount of data, are of questionable value at present. When a sufficient number of years of data become available, it is expected that models of this type can be used quite effectively for predicting annual tropical storm frequency over this region.
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