The use of objective sampling procedures in estimating Oregon filbert production Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/g158bm602

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  • Sampling procedures in estimating Oregon filbert production
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  • In an attempt to improve the mid-season forecast of filbert production, objective measure techniques were started in 1955 on an experimental basis. In the following years an adjusted ratio estimate was used to forecast the filbert production. The purpose of this study was to review the different assumptions and consider different estimating models. Following a survey of the entire producing area in the Pacific Northwest, a probability sample of trees from 350 orchards was selected. Counts of nuts and defects and nut weights were taken from the sample trees in July of each year to provide data for a forecast of the fall harvest. A subsample of nuts was sized and the size distribution of the nuts examined. A sample of harvested nuts was taken to determine the average nut weights and the defects for each size class. Results showed that little precision can be gained by geographical stratification. Direct expansion estimates are more precise and yield smaller deviations from the actual production than ratio estimates. The estimates met the objective of a sampling error less than five percent of the production estimate. Larger than expected deviation of the estimates from the actual production can be accounted for by the failure to forecast the changes between survey and harvest time. Examination of size distribution indicates that the estimated percent defects cannot be used alone for forecast the losses after sampling time, because a portion of the good nuts will not be harvested or will be lost during the handling procedures if they are too small to be classified as commercial. Other non-sampling errors are also discussed, but these errors can be minimized by better supervision of the sampling procedures. It is believed that future investigations should be focused on understanding changes which take place after a sampling time to improve the production estimates. There is little need for further improvement of the precision of the estimates, because the estimates met the objective of a sampling error less than five percent of the production estimate.
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