A systems model of the post-diluvial expansion of the National Flood Insurance Program in Lewistown, Pennsylvania Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_projects/ht24wk06k

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  • Expansion of the National Flood Insurance Program is described in the context of a modification of Kates' Systems Model of Human Adjustments to Natural Hazards for a small central Pennsylvania town (1970 population=ll,O98) that became eligible for flood insurance four months after experiencing five million dollars in flood damage and the loss of 2,200 jobs as the result of floods from Tropical Storm Agnes (June 1972). Primary data for the model came from a questionnaire mailed six months after the flood to a spatially stratified random sample of households with pre-flood addresses in the flood area (N=856, n=193, returns=147 or 76.2%). Floods at Lewistown are infrequent, severe, and associated with extreme meteorological events. A partially completed flood control reservoir (Raystown Dam) reduced flood levels at Lewistown. A flood warning of twenty-four hours enabled residents to elevate and evacuate personal property. Tenure influenced the decision of households to live at their preflood houses after the flood; homeowners=97%, renters=55%. Flood damage influenced the purchase of flood insurance: 3/4 with damage greater than $5,000, only 1/3 with damages between $2,500 and $5,000. The forgiveness value of Small Business Administration Disaster loans ($5,000) affected insurance decisions. Land use control of the flood insurance program are influencing efforts to redevelop the flooded area. Suggested as new directions of research are a causal model of insurances purchases and a decision tree of the insurance decision.
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