Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

Climate-based Seed Deployment Zones for the Pacific Northwest

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/jq085s97t

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  • Native populations of forest trees are specifically adapted to the climates they inhabit. The farther trees are moved from their local climates (i.e., as the climatic transfer distance increases), the more growth and survival tend to decrease. The transfer limit is the climatic transfer distance beyond which plantation performance is considered unacceptable. Thus, to ensure healthy and productive forests, the climatic adaptation of seedlots (i.e., seed from native stands or seed orchards) must be matched to the climate of the planting site. These concepts are important for current seed transfer and for assisted migration. Fixed zone seed deployment systems are frequently used to match seedlots to potential planting sites in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). However, the fixed zone method limits the deployment of seed and makes it difficult to share seed among organizations that use different zone systems. We developed analyses for a focal zone (i.e., climate-based) seed deployment system that can be implemented via the Zone Matcher web application to enhance regeneration success, forest productivity, and adaptation to climate change. We worked with stakeholders in the Pacific Northwest Tree Improvement Research Cooperative to ensure a relevant and usable product. We used the ClimateNA interpolation model to analyze climates in zone sets from Oregon (published in 1966 and 1996), Washington (1966, 2002), British Columbia (2017), California (1970), EPA Level IV Ecoregions (1986), and Idaho/western Montana (developed for this project). We measured climatic ranges within zones to infer minimum safe transfer distances. To identify climate variables with which to calculate climate distance, we partitioned climate variation within and among zones, performed random forest analyses, identified highly correlated climate variables, and reviewed existing literature. We combined sets of climate variables that varied regionally versus locally, resulting in nine variables for the Euclidean distance function. Based on climate data from 1981-2010 and a conservative transfer limit (RANGE/2), we identified matches among 4,931 zones spanning 305.9 M hectares. To enable users to explore these results and identify matches between zones, we developed the Zone Matcher web application. Users first choose a focal zone, and then Zone Matcher finds all zone matches within an acceptable climate distance. Users can also select a candidate zone to evaluate its match to the chosen focal zone. In this case, Zone Matcher shows the Euclidean climate distance and differences in 16 climate variables, photoperiod, latitude, and longitude between the focal zone and candidate zone. Zone Matcher includes climate matches for historic climate years centered on 1975 and 1995, and future years centered on 2025, 2055, and 2085 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Thus, users can choose seedlots based on a timescale and climate scenario of their choosing. Our focal zone system expands deployment in the current climate, allows more seedlots to be considered for a planting site, facilitates assisted migration, and allows seed sharing among organizations. Finally, land managers should evaluate current and future modelled species distribution intersections with zone matches, planting site ecology, and the presence of insects and diseases in conjunction with seed transfer decisions.
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  • This research was funded by the Pacific Northwest Tree Improvement Research Cooperative.
  • This research was funded by a U.S. Geological Survey Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center award G17AC000218 to Meridith McClure.
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