Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

A sampling procedure to detect alternative actions in a decision model for choosing among apple harvesting systems

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/k930c125g

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  • Numerous analytical aids are available to apple producers to assist them in the decision problem of choosing among alternative apple harvesting systems. However, a majority of these techniques fail to recognize the effect of apple orchard yield variability on system performance and economic efficiency. Furthermore, many of the suggested procedures for decision making do not conscientiously apply economic principles to a serious degree. Thus, it was the objective of the study to formulate a procedural guide for conduct of performance tests of mechanical and nonmechanical apple harvesting systems. The guidelines set forth in this thesis were developed in a manner consistent with economic and statistical requirements of modern decision theory. In pursuit of this objective a decision model was formulated which gives recognition to (1) the natural condition of yield variability among apple trees in an orchard, (2) the variability due to harvesting system productivity, and (3) costs as they are related to system productivity and economic life. Harvesting system performance and economic efficiency were evaluated as a function of yield variability or fruit density encountered in an apple orchard. Sources of yield differences and variability in an orchard were identified and data to document their existence was presented. A computer simulation program estimated the range of fruit density an apple orchard can exhibit. A sample size formula and sampling procedure were developed for (1) estimating from performance tests of systems the relationship between system productivity and orchard fruit density, and (2) detecting whether or not two or more systems are statistically different in an economical sense. In the event two or more apple harvesting systems are true decision alternatives, a computer program was employed to simulate operation over economic life of each system in a specified apple orchard. The simulation generates a distribution of present value of total cost for each alternative to which a decision criterion can be applied for selection of a system. The prescriptive character of the thesis precluded findings of a conclusive nature. However, sensitivity tests conducted on the present value of total cost computer simulation program indicated that implementation of the developed guidelines will clarify factors that influence apple harvester performance, and aid the decision making process of producers.
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