Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

Causes and consequences of uncertainty in the application of a biogeochemical model to a large geographic region

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  • When biogeochemical models are applied to large regions, the values of key model parameters are often unknowable. Through field and modeling studies, I examined the potential impact of such uncertainty on estimates of carbon cycling in western Oregon. I found that variation in key leaf traits could be interpreted ecologically, but that there was little ability to spatially predict leaf traits (Chapter 2). By developing an efficient methodology for spatial extrapolation of model results (Chapter 3), I was able to examine how this uncertainty, along with uncertainty in three other leaf traits, could result in spatially-varying estimates of carbon dynamics (Chapter 4). My results suggest that uncertainty in model parameters is potentially important, and that spatially explicit mapping of this uncertainty would be necessary if carbon dynamics modeling is to improve.
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