Essays on ethanol-driven corn demand and crop choice Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/m039k722k

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  • Two essays are focused on crop choice and the growth of corn production in the Corn Belt and surrounding areas. The first essay develops a partially degenerate nested logit model to examine the effect of price islands and local ethanol capacity on corn production and crop mix. The primary data sets in estimating the econometric model are the 2001 and 2005 Corn Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), and the 2002 and 2006 Soybean ARMS. These are large and informative survey data sets that have the potential for actual policy implications. The estimation of the nested partition (containing corn and soybeans) suggests that local prices have some influence on whether a farmer will choose to plant corn or soybeans, while estimation of the upper-level suggests that farmers may plant more corn, soybeans, or wheat relative to other crops, as ethanol capacity increases. The second essay uses a multinomial logit model to estimate a corn-soybean price ratio in different acreage scenarios that are designed to accommodate additional continuous corn production in the Upper Mississippi River Basin, in response to increased demand for corn-based ethanol. The land use scenarios are drawn from Soil and Water Assessment Tool estimation and are used in an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report authored by Aqua Terra Consultants and Texas A & M Spatial Sciences Laboratory (2008). The results suggest that as the corn-soybean price ratio increases, due to an increase in corn price or decrease in soybean price, farmers are more likely to plant continuous corn relative to a corn-soybean rotation. Parameter estimates are used to estimate the price of corn in future scenarios, with results suggesting a minimum corn price increase of 70% in order to encourage farmers to plant enough corn to meet ethanol mandates through 2022. Discussion includes the likelihood of a sustained corn price increase through 2022, and potential impacts beyond the EPA report, if such a price increase did occur.
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  • description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2011-06-07T19:54:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 MarshallKandiceK2011.pdf: 1052504 bytes, checksum: be27fa76eb37f188ef71459f5da0c9ac (MD5) license_rdf: 22588 bytes, checksum: ea670c3d41c679fe14ddd27ddad3face (MD5) license_text: 21030 bytes, checksum: afb2f9aa0e51fd9c78a12390c7ef29a0 (MD5)
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  • description.provenance : Approved for entry into archive by Julie Kurtz(julie.kurtz@oregonstate.edu) on 2011-06-07T17:16:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 3 MarshallKandiceK2011.pdf: 1052504 bytes, checksum: be27fa76eb37f188ef71459f5da0c9ac (MD5) license_rdf: 22588 bytes, checksum: ea670c3d41c679fe14ddd27ddad3face (MD5) license_text: 21030 bytes, checksum: afb2f9aa0e51fd9c78a12390c7ef29a0 (MD5)
  • description.provenance : Approved for entry into archive by Laura Wilson(laura.wilson@oregonstate.edu) on 2011-06-07T19:54:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 3 MarshallKandiceK2011.pdf: 1052504 bytes, checksum: be27fa76eb37f188ef71459f5da0c9ac (MD5) license_rdf: 22588 bytes, checksum: ea670c3d41c679fe14ddd27ddad3face (MD5) license_text: 21030 bytes, checksum: afb2f9aa0e51fd9c78a12390c7ef29a0 (MD5)

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