Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

Price-Endogenous Farm Technology Adoption and Ex-Ante Economic Impact Assessment

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  • Technological growth in agriculture increases crop output but it could lower output price in the market. Economic impact assessment in ex-ante analysis usually does not include these indirect supply responses, which can overestimate the economic potential of new technology. This dissertation provides an integrated farm-level ex-ante impact assessment model to examine direct supply responses and impacts of indirect supply responses of new technology through estimating population-level adoption rates. The methodology presented in this dissertation applies to both price and policy simulation setting. The first application examines the economic viability of a new biofuel crop, Camelina Sativa, in the Pacific Northwest of the United States under various output price scenarios. The second application investigates how the economic potential of crop diversification changes, due to output market changes from the introduction of a new direct payment program in a rice production system of South Korea. Overall results suggest supply responses play an important role in evaluating the economic feasibility of a new farming system. The magnitude of indirect supply responses are largely determined by the relative prices of competing crops and relevant economic parameters. These findings also demonstrate the importance of addressing potential price endogeneity in policy analysis, especially where a regional or population scale that the policy targets is likely to change market supply or demand by aggregate responses.
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  • The part of this dissertation is funded by the Sun Grant Program - Western Region
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