Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

Effects of econometric and activity analysis derived supply curves on Canadian sawmilling industry market forecasts

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  • This study utilizes the Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM) to examine the differences in Canadian softwood lumber market forecasts arising from econometric versus activity analysis supply curves. A restricted profit function approach is applied to three lumber producing regions using the most recent data available on costs, prices, and output to estimate the econometric supply curve along with factor demands. The corresponding own- and cross-price elasticities along with the elasticities of substitution are estimated and compared to past studies. An activity analysis supply curve is presented utilizing two production technologies. Market forecasts for the period 1996- 2005 are estimated via the TAMM model. A comparison of TAMM solutions for a base case and three exogenous shock scenarios is presented. Similar price and quantity values are obtained in the historic period, while the activity analysis provide a much more volatile reaction to exogenous stimuli.
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Déclaration de droits
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  • Master files scanned at 600 ppi (256 Grayscale) using Capture Perfect 3.0 on a Canon DR-9080C in TIF format. PDF derivative scanned at 300 ppi (256 B&W), using Capture Perfect 3.0, on a Canon DR-9080C. CVista PdfCompressor 4.0 was used for pdf compression and textual OCR.
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