Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

Private timber supply projections for western Oregon and Washington : a comparison with 1980 RPA timber supply estimates

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/qf85nf21v

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  • The Timber Resource Analysis System (TRAS) was the timber supply projection model used in conjunction with the Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM) to predict future U.S. softwood timber harvests, inventories and product prices in the 1980 RPA Timber Assessment conducted by the USDA Forest Service. Several criticisms of the TRAS model prompted the Forest Service to fund the development of the Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM), which will be used in the 1990 assessment. Unlike TRAS, TRIM has the ability to portray timber growth and management for individual groups of inventory acres, based on ownership, location, species and site characteristics, while allowing management intensities to fluctuate in response to predicted prices. The purpose of this study is to compare results of the TRAS projections for privately owned timberlands of the Pacific Northwest Westside region with three 50-year TRIM projections (1977-2027), which use TRAS/TAMM generated harvest volumes as harvest requests and Forest Service inventory figures. Projected harvests, inventories and age class distributions are compared, along with an analysis of changes in western Oregon and Washington's future harvest share. TRAS/TAMM harvest levels on forest industry property could not be fully sustained in the TRIM simulations. Although the two TRIM simulations that included a prespecified amount of commercial thinning were only 1.5 percent short of the third decade's harvest request, inventories had to be cut back to minimum harvest ages. NIPF harvest levels were sustained in TRIM throughout the planning horizon. TRIM estimated that future inventories will drop until 2007, when they begin to recover from initially high harvest levels; whereas, TRAS shows inventories that drop sharply throughout the 50-year period. The timber outlook is estimated to be one of sharply falling harvest volume on forest industry land, while NIPF lands maintain a steady, but much lower, harvest. Initial drops in inventory volume recover to levels similar to the 1977 inventory, although stands will become progressively younger. Washington dominates the region's harvest in the first decade, accounting for approximately 60-62 percent of harvest volume, but Oregon will show the largest harvest volume by 1997 (51-55 percent). Washington should again be harvesting the majority of volume by 2027; however, the state's harvest percentage will be slightly lower than the 1977 level with only 53-58 percent.
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