An economic analysis of the country specific impacts of freer international trade in sugar Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/v692t882r

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  • The world sugar market does not perform in a perfect competitive setting. This research has applied a new framework to analyze the impacts of liberalization in international trade in sugar. The current round of GATT negotiation has placed agricultural trade reform on top of the list. Trade in sugar will undoubtedly be affected by the outcome of the negotiation due to the substantial protection practiced by several governments. International trade in sugar is characterized by two separate types of market: special arrangement market and free market. The law of one price does not hold in world trade in sugar. A spatial equilibrium model cannot explain the rigidity in trade flows. Thus this research proposes to use the Export Side International Trade (ESIT) model to determine equilibrium prices and trade flows. The ESIT model maintains the rigidity of trade flows consistent with an Armington type model but does not require importing country prices data. The equilibrium in this model is determined by solving the excess supply and export demand functions in each exporting country. The protection or trade distortion policies in this research are captured by the concept of producer subsidy equivalent (PSE) and consumer subsidy equivalent (CSE). Applying the ESIT model to data on prices, trade flows, and removals of PSE and CSE at 1986 levels reveals that developing countries, not including Cuba, would expand their sugar economies by half a million metric tons a year. The gain in foreign exchange earnings for these countries would be in the magnitude of $170 million annually. The developed countries' sugar economies would contract by three million metric tons a year. The study identifies two developing countries from ASEAN, the Philippines and Thailand, as the major gainers both in terms of increases in export volume and exchange earnings. In conclusion, the study provides timely and valuable insights for formulating more informed planning in trade negotiations. The findings concerning contraction in the sugar sectors of the developed countries suggest reallocating of their resources to other areas to achieve economic efficiency. The liberalization in sugar trade could help the developing countries meet their foreign debt obligations. Expansion in employment and income redistribution to rural areas would result in these countries as well.
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