Modeling of point rainfall processes in the Republic of Cape Verde Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/w66347064

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  • The rainfall regime of the Cape Verde Islands is influenced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) resulting in strong seasonal trends and frequent thunderstorm events. These events are frequently responsible for the destruction of riverine structures and valuable crop land. A menu driven database program (RIS) was developed for the handling of large amounts of daily rainfall and intensity data for Santiago island. This program provides rapid access and downloading of data with automatic updating features for the inclusion of subsequent years data. A protoytpe stochastic point daily rainfall model for the station of San Jorge was developed for the purpose of the determining return periods of extreme events and the probability of dry runs during the growing season. This model utilizes three distributions, a truncated Log-Normal, a Log-Pearson Type III and an empirical distribution for the determination of the rainfall depth. A simple two-step Markov Chain is used to simulate the occurrence of rainfall. Physical influence of the ITZC was included in the model. The model was evaluated by the comparison of the historical summary statistics to ten 100 year model simulations. The model was judged to provide a good representation of the rainfall regime of San Jorge. Results indicate a 100 year storm will produce about 500 mm of rain in one day. Probabilities of dry runs during the months of September and October indicate a 10 percent probability of a 17 day dry run during the critical period of the growing season.
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