Outcome Distributions in Impact Assessment : Climate Change and Technology Adoption in Pacific Northwest Agriculture Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/z316q543j

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  • Increased temperature and precipitation variability and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change pose a threat to farming operations and agricultural communities. The recent IPCC assessment shows that the projected climate change will, on average, reduce wheat yields by 5% in temperate regions without adaptation and even more if temperatures continue to rise. Designing policies for helping climate-vulnerable farmers requires a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems and potential adaptation strategies. This dissertation consists of three essays that address several relevant issues from an economic perspective. The first essay presents an empirical analysis to assess the impacts of climate change on farm-level economic outcome distributions for winter wheat systems (including winter wheat yield, farm revenue, expenditure, and net return) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest by using a flexible moment-based approach. Results indicate that a warming climate, on average, reduces winter wheat yield but increases farm economic returns in this region, while droughts have a large negative impact on the ex-ante distributions of winter wheat yields and farm net returns. Using the econometric estimates, the farm-level climate vulnerability is quantified and examined. The second essay examines the effects of conservation tillage (including no-till and other conservation tillage) on winter wheat yield and production risk. We test the hypothesis that conservation tillage practices are risk-reducing. We use farm-level tillage practice data from the 2012 Agricultural Census for the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Results are estimated using a three-stage approach by integrating a multinomial logit model with a flexible moment-based approach. We find that conservation tillage has a negative effect on winter wheat productivity. We also find statistical evidence that conservation tillage is risk-increasing. Implications of the results for using conservation tillage to adapt to climate change are discussed. The third essay compares the difference-in-difference and fixed effects approaches to estimate long-term climate impacts versus short-term weather effects on U.S winter wheat systems. A county-level panel dataset is used to assess the effects of climate and weather variables on winter wheat yield and farm revenue in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and the central Great Plains. The net effect of a warming climate is found to be negative on the winter wheat production both in the short run and the long run. Implications of the results for short-term adjustments and long-term adaptations are discussed.
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  • description.provenance : Rejected by Julie Kurtz(julie.kurtz@oregonstate.edu), reason: Thanks for making the revisions. The page numbers 1-49 look good, but starting on page 50-147 page numbers appear both on the top right and bottom middle, so remove the ones on the bottom middle. Also there are page numbers 2-5 in the pretext pages starting with Table of Contents (Continued), so remove these also. Everything else looks good. Once revised, log back into ScholarsArchive and replace the attache file with the revised file and resubmit. Thanks, Julie on 2015-09-02T19:09:54Z (GMT)
  • description.provenance : Rejected by Julie Kurtz(julie.kurtz@oregonstate.edu), reason: Rejected because the dissertation after the pretext pages starts on page 6 and should start on page 1. Page numbers should be located in the top right corner. Everything else looks good. Once revised, log back into ScholarsArchive and go to the upload page. Replace the attached file with the revised file and resubmit. Thanks, Julie on 2015-09-02T16:04:23Z (GMT)
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  • description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-03T19:56:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: bb87e2fb4674c76d0d2e9ed07fbb9c86 (MD5) ZhangHongliang2015.pdf: 3923539 bytes, checksum: ec871fe35ab28eb74976b32e0abb072e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-07-06
  • description.provenance : Submitted by Hongliang Zhang (zhangh@onid.orst.edu) on 2015-09-02T19:53:06Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: bb87e2fb4674c76d0d2e9ed07fbb9c86 (MD5) ZhangHongliang2015.pdf: 3923539 bytes, checksum: ec871fe35ab28eb74976b32e0abb072e (MD5)

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