Developing models to predict favorable environments for rice blast Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/zw12z847h

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  • Statistical analyses were used to develop predictive models of rice blast and to relate the favorability of environment to disease incidence and severity on different rice cultivars at five sites in Asia. The WINDOW PANE program was used to search for weather factors highly correlated with blast. Stepwise and r-square linear regression procedures were then applied to generate the predictive models at each site. Models developed at Icheon, South Korea included relative humidity and rainfall factors as the most important predictors of disease. Temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and relative humidity factors were components of models at Cavinti and the IRRI blast nursery in the Philippines. Rainfall, temperature, and solar radiation factors were important at Gunung Medan and Sitiung, Indonesia. Model validation was done to verify accuracy of models for predictions. Model predictions were also used to determine the effects on blast of sowing time, nitrogen amount, and increase in temperature. Limitations of the models are discussed. Path coefficient analysis was used to identify direct and indirect influences exerted by weather factors on blast. The largest direct influence on disease was exerted by humidity factors at Icheon; temperature, rainfall, and wind speed factors at Cavinti; temperature and humidity factors at IRRI; rainfall factors at Gunung Medan; and temperature factors at Sitiung. Although path coefficient values (Py) were estimated from the decomposition of correlation coefficients, factors that had a high correlation with disease parameters did not always give high Py. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the effects of sowing times on proneness of tropical rice to blast. Cluster analysis of 24 hypothetical sowing months at Cavinti, the IRRI blast nursery, and Sitiung sites revealed three blast proneness groups. Principal component analysis showed that IR50 cultivar would be susceptible at Cavinti at any time of the year. Sowing C22 cultivar at Cavinti in Group I and III months would make it prone to panicle and leaf blast, respectively. At the IRRI blast nursery, leaf and panicle infections on IR50 would be probable only in Group I and II months. This trend was also observed for C22 at Sitiung, although some months in Group III at this site had moderate to high degree of proneness to leaf blast.
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