Equations for predicting the probability of a tree's dying in the next 5 years are presented for eight conifer and eight hardwood tree species from southwest Oregon. A logistic equation form was used to characterize the probability of mortality. The parameters of the equation were estimated using weighted, maximum likelihood procedures. These equations are being incorporated into the new southwest Oregon version of ORGANON, a model for predicting stand development. In particular, the equations extend the previous model to older stands and and stands with a heavier component of hardwood tree species.
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