- The European green crab (Carcinus maenas) has persisted in Oregon and Washington coastal estuaries since the late 1990’s. After the arrival of a strong year class in 1998, significant recruitment to the populations occurred only in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2015 and 2016. Warm winter water temperatures, high Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Indices, weak southward shelf currents in March and April and a high abundance of southern copepods are all correlated with strong year classes and vice versa (Behrens Yamada Peterson and Kosro 2015). Prior to 2015, green crabs were too rare to exert measurable effects on the native benthic community and on shellfish culture in Oregon and Washington. Following the recent strong El Niño, however, we documented the arrival of two strong year classes in 2015 and 2016. Catch rates in 2016 averaged 79 crabs per 100 traps, much higher than in any previous years since 1998. Since green crabs live for 6 years, these two consecutive year classes will provide larvae until 2022. A switch to cooler ocean conditions in the coming years will result in poor recruitment, but a return to high PDO and strong El Niño patterns would signal good recruitment and higher green crab densities. For example, green crabs were first documented in New England in 1817, but it took warm ocean conditions during the 1950’s for their numbers to build to a level at which they decimated the soft-shelled clam industry in Maine. With the recent warm trend on the East Coast, green crabs are again abundant. Not only are they preying on shellfish, they are also damaging valuable eelgrass habitat by ripping up the plants in search of food (Neckles 2015).
Even though green crab abundance in Oregon and Washington is still low when compared to Europe, eastern North America, Tasmania, California and the west coast of Vancouver Island, it is imperative to continue monitoring efforts for two reasons: 1) to elucidate the process of range expansion and population persistence of this model non-indigenous marine species with planktonic larvae, and
2) to predict the arrival of strong year classes from ocean conditions and alert managers and shellfish growers of possible increases in predation pressure from this invader.