SchmittnerAndreasCEOASClimateSensitivityEstimated.pdf

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Citeable URL: https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/defaults/7w62f987w

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Creator	Schmittner, Andreas Urban, Nathan M. Shakun, Jeremy D. Mahowald, Natalie M. Clark, Peter U. Bartlein, Patrick J. Mix, Alan C. Rosell-Mele, Antoni
Abstract	Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, 2–4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and non-zero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7–2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future as predicted by our model, these results imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
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