Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

The affect [i.e. effect] that expected social and technological changes will have on established occupations with implications for curriculum development

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  • Although the rate of social and technological change seems to be growing ever faster, and such changes are reflected in new directions for vocational education, the process of developing vocational programs in keeping with probable future contingencies remains unformalized. The purpose of this study was to examine the practicality of sequential interrogation- -the Delphi technique--in predicting changes which will occur in the broad competencies necessary for the successful future performance of a job. A test application of the Delphi process was made on a specific set of occupations --the middle management occupations in regulated motor freight transportation in the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. The areas of likely change, derived from a search of the trade literature of recent years, were: (1) An increasing use of computer technology in the processing of data, the making of management decisions and possible other applications. (2) Changes in the posture of federal, state and local governmental agencies regarding their regulatory roles. (3) A demand for ever -inchreasing levels of sophistication in the justification of rate changes. (4) The continuing development of new equipment and technologies in materials handling. (5) Increasing interaction among the various transportation modes. (6) Changes in the social and environmental priorities of the nation as they affect the industry. (7) An increasing demand for efficiency and effectiveness in the utilization of the resources of a firm. The changes thus identified were translated into statements of broad skill or information needs and presented to the panel through four rounds of questioning and information feedback. The process of questioning resulted in establishing (for each of the seven areas of anticipated change): (1) The rate at which change is taken place, (2) The degree to which middle managers are currently competent in their work, (3) The point in future time when current levels of knowledge will become obsolete. In addition, the panel of experts examined each area of change in order to identify the specific skills which could be expected to alter as the result of expected change, and to suggest ways in which the industry might cope with the effect of change on its middle-managers. The results thus obtained were submitted to four community college vocational administrators to obtain their views regarding the value of such information for curriculum development. Their response then became an additional basis for conclusions and recommendations. Conclusions were reached regarding (1) the changes which are occurring in the occupational needs of middle managers in motor freight transporation, (2) the use of the Delphi Technique, and (3) the value of the technique to curriculum planners and vocational administrators. The study data led to recommendations for (1) industryeducation action in meeting the changing occupational needs of middle managers in motor freight transportation, and for (2) the application of futures research to vocational education.
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