Over recent decades, the Bering Sea has experienced oceanic and atmospheric
climate extremes, including record warm ocean temperature anomalies and marine heatwaves (MHWs), and increasingly variable air-sea heat fluxes. In this work, we assess the relative roles of surface forcing and ocean dynamical processes on mixed layer temperature (MLT) tendency...
Global warming is expected to cause significant changes in the pattern of precipitation minus evaporation (𝑃 − 𝐸), which represents the net flux of water from the atmosphere to the surface or, equivalently, the convergence of moisture transport within the atmosphere. In most global climate model simulations, the pattern of...
Probabilistic flood hazard assessment is a promising methodology for estuarine risk assessment but currently remains limited by prohibitively long simulation times. This study addresses this problem through the development of an emulator, or surrogate model, which replaces the simulator (in this case the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN model) with a statistical representation...
1. Globally, river systems have been extensively modified through alterations in riverscapes and flow regimes, reducing their capacity to absorb geophysical and environmental changes.
2. In western North America and elsewhere, alterations in natural flow regimes and swimways through dams, levees, and floodplain development, work in concert with fire regime,...
This case study explores how to add value to regional ocean condition forecast information by bringing awareness to the processes that govern decision-making and outcomes within the system. A modified mental models research approach is applied to examine differences and similarities in perceptions of risk and comfort with uncertainty between...
This case study is in response to a recognized need to transform short-term regional ocean condition forecast information into useful data products for a range of end users, considering their perceptions of uncertainty and risk associated with these forecasts. It demonstrates the value of user engagement in achieving long-term goals...
Coupled models of coastal hazards, ecosystems, socioeconomics, and landscape management in conjunction with alternative scenario analysis provide tools that can allow decision-makers to explore effects of policy decisions under uncertain futures. Here, we describe the development and assessment of a set of model-based alternative future scenarios examining climate and population...
Marine macrophyte wrack (macroalgae and seagrasses) frequently washes onto beaches but little is known about the factors controlling its biogeographic variability. We report on a large-scale study of macrophyte wrack deposition patterns on the US Pacific Northwest coast. We measured macrophyte wrack on 12 sandy beach sites from southern Washington...
The juvenile demersal fish assemblage along the Pacific Northwest coast has received little attention relative to adult life history stages since pioneering work in the 1970s. Increasing severity of hypoxia along the Oregon coast in recent years has prompted investigations into the response of biota in this region. We used...
Coastal communities are increasingly experiencing climate change–induced coastal disasters and chronic flooding and erosion. Decision makers and the public alike are struggling to reconcile the lack of ‘‘fit’’ between a rapidly changing environment and relatively rigid governance structures. In efforts to bridge this environment-governance gap in Tillamook County, Oregon, stakeholders...