The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in...
Maximum earthquake magnitude (m[subscript x]) is a critical parameter in seismic
hazard and risk analysis. However, some recent large earthquakes have shown that
most of the existing methods for estimating m[subscript x] are inadequate. Moreover, m[subscript x] itself is ill-defined because its meaning largely depends on the context, and it...
The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
(WGCEP14) present the time-independent component of the Uniform California
Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative
estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially
damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax
fault segmentation and...