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Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Creator:

Field, Edward H., Biasi, Glenn P., Bird, Peter, Madden, Christopher, Dawson, Timothy E., Felzer, Karen R., Jackson, David D., Johnson, Kaj M., Jordan, Thomas H., Michael, Andrew J., Milner, Kevin R., Page, Morgan T., Parsons, Tom, Powers, Peter M., Shaw, Bruce E., Thatcher, Wayne R., Weldon, Ray J., II, and Zeng, Yuehua

Abstract:

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in...

Resource Type:

Article
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) —The Time-Independent Model

Creator:

Field, Edward H., Arrowsmith, Ramon J., Biasi, Glenn P., Bird, Peter, Dawson, Timothy E., Felzer, Karen R., Jackson, David D., Johnson, Kaj M., Jordan, Thomas H., Madden, Christopher, Michael, Andrew J., Milner, Kevin R., Page, Morgan T., Parsons, Tom, Powers, Peter M., Shaw, Bruce E., Thatcher, Wayne R., Weldon, Ray J., II, and Zeng, Yuehua

Abstract:

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation and...

Resource Type:

Article

ScholarsArchive@OSU

Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) —The Time-Independent Model

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