The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in...
The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
(WGCEP14) present the time-independent component of the Uniform California
Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative
estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially
damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax
fault segmentation and...
Along- and cross-shelf correlation scales of subtidal cross-shelf (u) and alongshelf
(ν) velocities are estimated using moored records from several field programs over
the northern California shelf. Over record lengths of 4-6 months, along-shelf correlation
scales of ν are greater than maximum mooring separations (60 km). In the cross-shelf
direction...
In north and central California, equatorward winds drive equatorward flows
and the upwelling of cold dense water over the shelf during the midspring and summer
upwelling season. When the winds temporarily weaken, the upwelling flows between
Point Reyes and Point Arena ‘‘relax,’’ becoming strongly poleward over the shelf.
Analytical and...
Heat and salt balances are estimated over the northern California shelf from
early December 1988 through late February 1989 (winter) and from early March
through early May 1989 (spring) from moored meteorological and oceanographic time
series taken in 93 m of water 6.3 km from the coast. We find a...
We discuss connections between inner‐shelf and mid‐shelf circulation near Point Conception, California, as well as the wind forcing of inner‐shelf circulation. Point Conception marks the southern edge of a major upwelling zone that extends from Oregon to central California. The coastline makes a sharp eastward turn at Point Conception, and...
New ice core analyses show that the prominent rise in atmospheric methane concentration at Dansgaard-Oeschger event 21 was interrupted by a century-long 20% decline, which was previously unrecognized. The reversal was found in a new ∼100-year resolution study of methane in the GISP2 ice core, encompassing the beginning of D-O...
Month-long simulations using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric
Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) with a horizontal resolution of 9 km have been used to investigate
perturbations of topographically forced wind stress and wind stress curl during upwelling-favorable winds along
the California and Baja California coasts during June 1999....
The thermal properties of sediment and the albedo are critical in calculating the heat
flux of a tidal flat. However, they are not well known because of the difficulties of
sampling and observing tidal flats. We use extensive field observations of a macrotidal flat
on the western coast of Korea...
The coastal circulation in the Santa Barbara Channel (SBC) and the southern central
California shelf is described in terms of three characteristic flow patterns. The upwelling
pattern consists of a prevailing equatorward flow at the surface and at 45 m depth, except in
the area immediately adjacent to the mainland...