The primary impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on marine biogeochemical cycles predicted so far include ocean acidification, global warming induced shifts in biogeographical provinces, and a possible negative feedback on atmospheric CO2 levels by CO2-fertilized biological production. Here we report a new potentially significant impact on the oxygen-minimum zones of...
A new model of the marine ecosystem coupled into a global Earth System Climate Model suitable for long-term (multimillennial timescale) simulations is presented. The model is based on nitrate as the sole limiting nutrient. Prognostic equations for nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus are solved online in the three-dimensional ocean circulation...
A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures...
During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 ky before present) the atmospheric CO2 concentration was about 100 ppm lower than its pre-industrial (PI)value. The missing carbon from the atmosphere must have been stored in thedeep ocean during this period, but the mechanisms driving such re-distribution ofthe carbon cycle are...
We present a new nitrogen isotope model incorporated into the three-dimensional ocean component of a global Earth System Climate Model designed for millennial timescale simulations. The model includes prognostic tracers for the stable nitrogen isotopes, ¹⁴N and ¹⁵N, in the nitrate (NO₃ˉ), phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus variables of the marine...
Earth's climate and the concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) varied strongly on millennial timescales during past glacial periods. Large and rapid warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic were followed by more gradual cooling, and are highly correlated with fluctuations of...
A coupled climate-carbon cycle model and ice core CO2 data from the last glacial
period are used to explore the impact of changes in ocean circulation on atmospheric
CO2 concentrations on millennial time scales. In the model, stronger wind
driven circulation increases atmospheric CO2. Changes in the buoyancy driven
deep...
Paleoclimate archives have revealed abrupt climate events that are superimposed on more gradual climate changes throughout the last glacial and deglacial periods. The underlying causes of such rapid climate changes are still poorly understood, but the strong expression of these events in northern hemisphere records likely points to climatic mechanisms...
What is the uncertainty of climate-carbon cycle projections in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and how can we reduce this uncertainty? We address this question by quantifying the ability of available ocean tracer observations to constrain the values of diapycnal diffusivity in the pelagic ocean (Kv), a key uncertain...
The range in the projections of future climate warming can be attributed to the inherent uncertainty in the representation of climate model parameters and processes. In this study, we assess the effect of uncertainty in climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake on the rate of future climate change. We apply...
The impact of mountains and ice sheets on the large-scale circulation of the world’s oceans is investigated in a series of simulations with a new coupled ocean–atmosphere model [Oregon State University–University of Victoria model (OSUVic)], in which the height of orography is scaled from 1.5 times the actual height (at...
Current projections of the oceanic response to anthropogenic climate forcings are uncertain. Two key sources of these uncertainties are (1) structural errors in current Earth system models and (2) imperfect knowledge of model parameters. Ocean tracer observations have the potential to reduce these uncertainties. Previous studies typically consider each tracer...
Current projections of the oceanic response to anthropogenic climate forcings are uncertain. Two key sources of these uncertainties are (1) structural errors in current Earth system models and (2) imperfect knowledge of model parameters. Ocean tracer observations have the potential to reduce these uncertainties. Previous studies typically consider each tracer...
Paleoclimate records from glacial Indian and Pacific oceans sediments document millennial-scale fluctuations of subsurface dissolved oxygen levels and denitrification coherent with North Atlantic temperature oscillations. Yet the mechanism of this teleconnection between the remote ocean basins remains elusive. Here we present model simulations of the oxygen and nitrogen cycles that...
Coupled climate–carbon models have shown the potential for large feedbacks between climate change, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and global carbon sinks. Standard metrics of this feedback assume that the response of land and ocean carbon uptake to CO₂ (concentration–carbon cycle feedback) and climate change (climate–carbon cycle feedback) combine linearly. This study...
Paleoclimate records from glacial Indian and Pacific oceans sediments document millennial-scale fluctuations of subsurface dissolved oxygen levels and denitrification coherent with North Atlantic temperature oscillations. Yet the mechanism of this teleconnection between the remote ocean basins remains elusive. Here we present model simulations of the oxygen and nitrogen cycles that...
Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, 2–4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and non-zero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a...
Full Text:
Reconstructions 1
of the Last Glacial Maximum 2
3
Andreas Schmittner,
1*
Nathan M. Urban,
2
Jeremy D
We present a new nitrogen isotope model incorporated into the three-dimensional ocean component of a global Earth system climate model designed for millennial timescale simulations. The model includes prognostic tracers for the two stable nitrogen isotopes, 14N and 15N, in the nitrate (NO3−), phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus variables of the...
Ocean deoxygenation is predicted to increase in severity over the next few decades, posing a threat to marine life and fishing economies. Improved predictions of ocean deoxygenation depend on a better understanding of the biogeochemical mechanisms that underly this process. Within the realm of biogeochemical mechanisms, this project specifically investigated...
If a scientist can predict the weather (poorly)
Why cannot he predict fish yields (yet more poorly)? – a clerihew by Chris Corkett.
Recent long term historical studies of commercial fisheries have pointed to a well established pattern of overfishing. Under the principle of transference – what is true in...