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The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa

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https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/bg257k92n

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Abstract
  • Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961–2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982–2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for ≈20 million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global climate changes toward more El Niño-like conditions, as most climate models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected by El Niño events. Management measures include annual changes in crop selection and storage strategies in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation-based and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing season.
  • Keywords: nonlinear statistical modelling, food production, North Atlantic Oscillation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, El Nino Southern Oscillation
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  • Stige, L. C., Stave, J., Chan, K., Ciannelli, L., Pettorelli, N., Glantz, M., Herren, H. R., & Stenseth, N. C. (2006, February 28). The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa [Electronic version]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(9), 3049-3053. doi:10.1073/pnas.0600057103
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  • 103
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  • 9
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  • This work has primarily been funded through core funding to the Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis received from the University of Oslo. However, without the funding received from the Global Environment Facility, World Bank and Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation to the Management of Indigenous Vegetation for the Rehabilitation of Degraded Rangelands in the Arid Zone of Africa (www.ivp-rcu.org/index.htm) the work reported in this article would never have materialized.
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