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Fishery Management with Environmental Prediction

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Abstract
  • In this paper, we use a common renewable resource model with stochastic growth to obtain three main results. First, we demonstrate that predictions of poor future environmental conditions lead to lower desired escapement (i.e., low remaining resource stock in place after harvest) and higher current harvest. At first glance, it may seem that predictions of poor environmental conditions should lead to conservative resource management. A prediction of poor conditions means that expected future stock will be depressed, which reduced current harvests can help to mitigate. However, optimal management may require the opposite response to a prediction of poor environmental conditions. Unfavorable future environmental conditions lead to low expected returns to leaving the resource stock in place, making current harvest more attractive. Alternatively, a prediction of favorable future environmental conditions makes leaving the resource in place a good investment, which will tend to decrease current harvest. This result depends on interior solutions (i.e. positive harvest). It is important to note that the optimal response to predictions of future conditions is not the same as the optimal response to shocks to the current resource stock. A shock that lowers current stock should reduce current harvest. Second, we show that under the assumptions of this model, optimal management of a renewable resource requires only a forecast one period in advance. Insofar as forecasting agencies must tradeoff between forecast accuracy and forecast lead-time, this research suggests greater gains can be realized by improving short-term forecast accuracy. The third main result is that provided environmental shocks are bounded within a certain range, access to the resource will never be closed. In this note we first introduce the model and then describe the results, referring the reader to a published version of this model for details.
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  • Costell, C., S. Polasky and A. Solow. Fishery Management with Environmental Prediction. In: Microbehavior and Macroresults: Proceedings of the Tenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, July 10-14, 2000, Corvallis, Oregon, USA. Compiled by Richard S. Johnston and Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), Corvallis, 2001.
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  • Corvallis, Oregon, USA
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  • Johnston, Richard S.
  • Shriver, Ann L.
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  • MG Kailis Group
  • International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade
  • U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service
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