Other Scholarly Content

 

Effect of forecast skill on management of the Oregon coast coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery Public Deposited

Downloadable Content

Download PDF
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/defaults/b2774173k

To the best of our knowledge, one or more authors of this paper were federal employees when contributing to this work.

Descriptions

Attribute NameValues
Creator
Abstract
  • Better fisheries management is often given as one justification for research on improving forecasts of fish survival. However, the value gained from expected improvements in forecast skill in terms of achieving management goals is rarely quantified as part of research objectives. Using Monte Carlo simulations of population dynamics, we assessed the effect of forecast skill under two strategies for managing Oregon coast natural (OCN) coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). The first, or status quo, strategy is currently being used to rebuild threatened OCN coho populations. This strategy determines harvest based on both a forecasted marine survival rate and parental spawner abundance. The second strategy relies on a forecast of preharvest adult abundance to achieve a constant spawner escapement target. Performance of the status quo strategy was largely insensitive to forecast skill, while the second strategy showed sensitivity that varied with escapement target and specific performance metric. The results imply that effort towards improving forecasts is not justifiable solely on the basis of improved management under the status quo strategy, though it may be were the management strategy altered.
Resource Type
DOI
Date Available
Date Issued
Citation
  • Rupp, D. E., Wainwright, T. C., & Lawson, P. W. (2012, June). Effect of forecast skill on management of the Oregon coast coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 69(6), 1016-1032. doi:10.1139/F2012-040
Rights Statement
Funding Statement (additional comments about funding)
  • This work was supported by NOAA Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program (project No. 09-10).
Publisher
Replaces
Additional Information
  • description.provenance : Made available in DSpace on 2012-06-25T22:27:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RuppDavidCEOASEffectForecastSkill.pdf: 352042 bytes, checksum: 560b75d776cccc9ed6db2062efe1bb10 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-06
  • Vol. 69 no. 6
  • description.provenance : Submitted by Deanne Bruner (deanne.bruner@oregonstate.edu) on 2012-06-25T22:27:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 RuppDavidCEOASEffectForecastSkill.pdf: 352042 bytes, checksum: 560b75d776cccc9ed6db2062efe1bb10 (MD5)
  • Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Relationships

Parents:

This work has no parents.

Items