A tourism demand forecast for Japanese travelers to the USA Public Deposited

http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/graduate_thesis_or_dissertations/12579w288

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  • International tourism is a rapidly growing industry. It is also an important revenue source for certain countries and regions. Therefore, accurate forecasting is called for by those countries and regions. The main purpose of this research is to use multiple regression analysis to estimate equations for forecasting tourism demand by Japanese travelers to the USA. In the first stage of the analysis, separate equations were estimated for two motivational models: pleasure traveler and business traveler models. In the second stage of the analysis, regional demand forecast equations for Hawaii, mainland USA, and overall USA were estimated based upon the two previous motivational models. Even though some of the hypothesized independent variables were omitted from the final equations, the estimated models have sufficient accuracy for forecasting future Japanese travel demand to the USA. All of the estimated models are consistent with motivational and socioeconomic factors for Japanese travelers to the USA. An assessment of the models was carried out by comparing the actual and predicted data for 1991. The 1991 predictions derived from obtained models overestimated Japanese visitation to the USA by 14-23% in comparison with actual figures. This overestimation could be explained by the unexpected incident of the Gulf war. Another forecasting study done by Japan Travel Bureau Inc. also overestimated the number of all outbound Japanese travelers in 1991 by 8%, but did not have forecasts for USA destination. JTB agreed that the reason for overestimation was the Gulf war.
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  • description.provenance : Approved for entry into archive by Linda Kathman(linda.kathman@oregonstate.edu) on 2009-02-05T14:11:21Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Yamaguchi_Kazuo_1993.pdf: 1159570 bytes, checksum: 85d086ca76c6c590c6dcb8dbcb749c31 (MD5)

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