Graduate Thesis Or Dissertation
 

An analysis of production and consumption of food in Korea

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  • The general objective of this study is to analyze the production and the consumption of food in Korea for the years 1955 through 1969 and to project them for the years 1970 through 1980. This study has the following purposes; (1) To examine the trend in food production and yield. (2) To investigate the factors affecting food production and food consumption. (3) To project future food production and consumption. (4) To examine how much food production can be increased by changing from rice to other grain production in the rain-fed and upland rice area and to examine what effect this would have on domestic food supply. (5) To project future food production and consumption if other grain production were to replace rice in the rain-fed and upland rice area. Total food production increased by 60.6% during the period of 1955 to 1969. While the amount of food supplied domestically (domestic food production plus change in stock) had increased by 42.9% the amount of food consumed was found to have increased 92.5% during the same period. It is shown that during the period of 1955 to 1969, except for 1955, the amount of food supplied domestically lagged behind the consumption of it and the gaps were filled by imports. The food shortage gradually widened because of (1) rapidly increasing population and (2) changes in income. Food shortages were more crucial in the recent three years from 1967 to 1969. Food shortage as a percentage of total food consumption in 1967, 1968, and 1969 was found to be 14.2, 19.0, and 23.6%, respectively. It was estimated that the quantity of food supplied domestically should be increased by 16.5% for 1967, 23.4% for 1968, and 31.0% for 1969 to achieve the self-sufficient food level at the market prices of those years. According to the projections of aggregate production and consumption of food, the average year by year food shortage would be 1,414,600 M/T during the period of 1970 to 1980. This is equivalent to 13.05% of the total food consumption and the rate of self-sufficiency would be 85.16%. If rain-fed and upland rice areas, at least, were replaced by other grain production such as potatoes, millet, and sorghum, which require less water than rice, there is no doubt that more food could be produced. Planted at the right time any of these crops would produce more food volume than does rice under the present uncertain weather conditions and poor irrigation facilities. A considerable amount of gain can be obtained by replacing the rain-fed and upland rice area by production of other grains, assuming that the same production practices and input factors are used and no change in prices took place. Under this assumption, the average possible gain in production for 1955 to 1969 was found to be about 141,000 M/T every year. This indicates that food production could have been increased by 2.35% and the shortage of food could have been reduced by 19.14% during the same-period. The projected possible shortage of food during the period of 1970 to 1980 would be 1,190,800 M/T per year under the assumption that some rice areas are converted to production of other grain. This shortage is equivalent to 11.0% of the total food consumption and the rate of self-sufficiency would be 87.79%. Under this assumption, it was estimated that the shortage of food could be reduced by 223,800 M/T (15.8%) per year during the projection period. Korea is not in a position at present and in the near future (projected 11 years) to achieve a level of self-sufficiency in food production. This is, like other developing countries, due to insufficient irrigation facilities; inability of the government to maintain an effective agricultural program; shortage of farm tools and equipment; shortage of trained personnel; and agricultural research organization; and to a shortage of fertilizer supply. If self-sufficiency is desired, Korean people should change the food consumption pattern from rice to other grain. The most important solution to the food problem would be the pricing policy in the food market and government participation in providing necessary technical assistance and other production incentives needed by farmers.
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