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Variations in Alsea River flow: implications for Alsea Spit & inlet stability

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  • Based in part on previous work by this researcher, variables assumed to play a minor part in the process/ response system examined by the OSU Alsea Bay Hazard Study Team (1985-87)--river input and subsequent variations in hydrology--were more completely analyzed for their range of effects on the stability of Alsea Bay Spit and inlet. Through air photo analysis of spit configurations, compil­ation of concurrent tide prism characteristics, and empiric study of environmental variables, a correlation matrix was developed to refine and evaluate the parameters used in determination of stability for the spit and inlet. Results of the statistical analysis showed high correlation between spit area, tide range, and tide prism variations. No sig­nificant correlation was found between river flow and spit size, except when flow is combined with total tide prism volumes. These findings provide the basis for further development of a predictive model capable of identifying future unstable periods at the Alsea Bay inlet.
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